Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Kelly 41.7% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 61.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 81.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 81.3%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Horvat
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Horvat
Kelly
Last 7: Horvat 2-5 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
3
Horvat
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
2
Horvat
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
42.0% (758)
+11.9%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
0.0% (3)
+61.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
36.8% (174)
+10.4%
On power play, Horvat has a +61.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. Kelly is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (630).
Home / Away
Horvat
Kelly
Home
56.1% (8,423)
42.4% (476)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Horvat
Kelly
P1
54.1%
42.3%
P2
54.5%
44.7%
P3
55.0%
35.6%
OT
49.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |