Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Horvat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
O'Reilly
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
55.7% (856)
+0.0%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
57.5% (233)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
50.0% (144)
-1.4%
On power play, Horvat has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horvat is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (633).
Horvat shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Horvat
O'Reilly
Home
59.4% (537)
55.5% (616)
Away
54.0% (544)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Horvat
O'Reilly
P1
59.9%
58.1%
P2
54.5%
54.9%
P3
56.1%
53.9%
OT
55.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |