Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 75 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 85-78 in 163 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 51.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 50.8%
Neutral zone
Horvat 50.3%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Horvat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
78
-
85
(163 meetings)
78
85
Horvat
O'Reilly
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
32
43
Horvat
O'Reilly
75 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
26
21
Horvat
O'Reilly
47 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
20
21
Horvat
O'Reilly
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
56.2% (15,290)
-2.3%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
58.7% (3,457)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
51.4% (2,826)
-4.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Horvat
O'Reilly
Home
56.1% (8,423)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Horvat
O'Reilly
P1
54.1%
55.6%
P2
54.5%
57.0%
P3
55.0%
55.0%
OT
49.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 04:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:40 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |