Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.9% vs Hertl 57.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 71.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 55.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Horvat
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Horvat
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
0
Horvat
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (713)
58.5% (845)
-3.1%
Power Play
63.2% (242)
56.2% (281)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (104)
62.9% (35)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
59.0% (515)
60.0% (582)
Away
54.0% (544)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
59.6%
52.1%
P2
53.9%
63.6%
P3
56.2%
58.8%
OT
55.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.6%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |