Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.6%
Defensive zone
Horvat 58.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.4%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Horvat
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Horvat
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
0
Horvat
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
58.7% (858)
-3.0%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
55.8% (285)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
62.9% (35)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (633).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
59.4% (537)
60.1% (599)
Away
54.0% (544)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
59.9%
52.4%
P2
54.5%
63.9%
P3
56.1%
58.5%
OT
55.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |