Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.3%). Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (53% H2H, 53 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 82-81 in 163 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.1%
Defensive zone
Horvat 54.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Horvat
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
82
-
81
(163 meetings)
82
81
Horvat
Hertl
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
31
32
Horvat
Hertl
63 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
28
25
Horvat
Hertl
53 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
23
24
Horvat
Hertl
47 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
53.9% (8,303)
+0.0%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
59.2% (1,995)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
46.3% (806)
+0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Horvat
Hertl
Home
56.1% (8,423)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Horvat
Hertl
P1
54.1%
53.6%
P2
54.5%
54.2%
P3
55.0%
55.3%
OT
49.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:33 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |