Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.4%). Look for Jenner on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 23 meetings). Jenner wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Tavares 54.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 33-31 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.8%
Defensive zone
Jenner 66.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Jenner
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
31
(64 meetings)
33
31
Jenner
Tavares
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
16
Jenner
Tavares
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
15
8
Jenner
Tavares
23 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Jenner
Tavares
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,228)
54.0% (16,169)
+0.5%
Power Play
55.8% (1,148)
56.4% (4,298)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (1,001)
50.5% (624)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Jenner is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,209).
Jenner shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Jenner
Tavares
Home
54.5% (4,073)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
53.4% (4,304)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Jenner
Tavares
P1
53.6%
55.0%
P2
53.6%
54.1%
P3
54.5%
54.0%
OT
54.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
53.9%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 09:03 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 3 | 07:49 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:14 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:29 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 12:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |