Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Jenner wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 25-14 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Jenner 50.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 71.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 69.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Jenner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
25
(39 meetings)
14
25
Jenner
Dowd
Last 10: Jenner 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
9
4
Jenner
Dowd
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
12
Jenner
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
9
Jenner
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,228)
52.3% (6,036)
+2.2%
Power Play
55.8% (1,148)
56.1% (164)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (1,001)
44.1% (1,638)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Jenner is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,168).
Jenner shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Jenner
Dowd
Home
54.5% (4,073)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
53.4% (4,304)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Jenner
Dowd
P1
53.6%
51.5%
P2
53.6%
50.4%
P3
54.5%
50.3%
OT
54.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
53.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:48 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 07:01 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |