Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.3%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 20 meetings). Jenner wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 33-21 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Jenner 52.6%
Defensive zone
Jenner 71.7%
Neutral zone
Jenner 63.0%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Jenner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
33
(54 meetings)
21
33
Jenner
Hertl
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
14
Jenner
Hertl
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
14
Jenner
Hertl
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
8
5
Jenner
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,228)
53.9% (8,303)
+0.6%
Power Play
55.8% (1,148)
59.2% (1,995)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (1,001)
46.3% (806)
+2.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jenner is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,209).
Jenner shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Jenner
Hertl
Home
54.5% (4,073)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.4% (4,304)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Jenner
Hertl
P1
53.6%
53.6%
P2
53.6%
54.2%
P3
54.5%
55.3%
OT
54.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
53.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |