Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Nelson 50.8% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 80.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 86.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
50.9% (928)
+4.0%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
59.8% (179)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.4% (205)
+56.6%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
50.8% (128)
52.9% (654)
Away
62.9% (132)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
56.6%
48.4%
P2
58.9%
54.3%
P3
56.2%
50.5%
OT
50.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |