Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Nelson 48.3% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 90.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Tkachuk
Nelson
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
8
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
8
Tkachuk
Nelson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
5
Tkachuk
Nelson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
47.9% (9,744)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
54.7% (1,149)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
43.8% (790)
+1.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,665).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
50.7% (1,435)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
49.4%
48.7%
P2
51.3%
48.6%
P3
49.1%
47.7%
OT
55.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
47.0%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 03:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |