Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Coyle 50.5% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 82.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 92.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 64.6%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Tkachuk
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Tkachuk
Coyle
Last 9: Tkachuk 4-5 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
0
Tkachuk
Coyle
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
4
Tkachuk
Coyle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
1
Tkachuk
Coyle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
52.3% (853)
+2.6%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
44.4% (63)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.5% (191)
+55.5%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +55.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (77).
Tkachuk shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Coyle
Home
50.8% (128)
49.0% (567)
Away
62.9% (132)
52.0% (540)
By Period
Tkachuk
Coyle
P1
56.6%
49.5%
P2
58.9%
49.4%
P3
56.2%
52.6%
OT
50.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:57 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:21 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |