Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Ryan 57.4% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 93.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 53.1%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 71.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Tkachuk
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Tkachuk
Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
4
Tkachuk
Ryan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
61.4% (220)
-10.4%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
100.0% (1)
-48.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
51.7% (29)
-1.7%
On power play, Ryan has a +48.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Tkachuk shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Ryan
Home
50.0% (140)
64.2% (137)
Away
52.2% (207)
55.8% (113)
By Period
Tkachuk
Ryan
P1
54.3%
58.9%
P2
50.0%
62.8%
P3
49.5%
59.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
51.3%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:16 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |