Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Ryan 55.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 96.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 57.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 63.9%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Tkachuk
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Tkachuk
Ryan
Last 10: Tkachuk 4-6 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
9
0
Tkachuk
Ryan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
11
Tkachuk
Ryan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
2
Tkachuk
Ryan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
56.6% (4,102)
-7.7%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
53.2% (342)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
47.8% (649)
-2.8%
On even strength, Ryan has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Ryan
Home
50.7% (1,435)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Tkachuk
Ryan
P1
49.4%
55.1%
P2
51.3%
54.7%
P3
49.1%
56.0%
OT
55.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:16 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:38 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |