Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Larkin 55.0% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 66.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 93.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.4%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Tkachuk
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tkachuk
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
55.9% (943)
-8.0%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
57.4% (244)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
46.2% (106)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Larkin
Home
56.0% (175)
56.0% (654)
Away
49.8% (205)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Tkachuk
Larkin
P1
55.0%
54.4%
P2
51.9%
55.9%
P3
47.3%
55.2%
OT
77.8%
64.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
52.6%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |