Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Evans 55.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 51.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 90.3%
9.7%
90.3%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tkachuk
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Tkachuk
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
55.6% (522)
-0.7%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
72.7% (11)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
55.2% (210)
+44.8%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +44.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (77).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
50.8% (128)
54.7% (402)
Away
62.9% (132)
56.9% (341)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
56.6%
57.9%
P2
58.9%
55.2%
P3
56.2%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |