Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 25 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Evans 52.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 24-14 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 58.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
24
(38 meetings)
14
24
Tkachuk
Evans
Last 10: Tkachuk 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
10
0
Tkachuk
Evans
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
22
Tkachuk
Evans
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Tkachuk
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
53.7% (3,740)
-4.8%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
60.6% (71)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
47.1% (1,228)
-2.1%
On power play, Evans has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
50.7% (1,435)
53.3% (2,621)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
51.0% (2,418)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
49.4%
54.0%
P2
51.3%
50.9%
P3
49.1%
52.0%
OT
55.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:18 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 12:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |