Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Staal 54.6% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 85.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 87.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.4%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Tkachuk
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Tkachuk
Staal
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
9
1
Tkachuk
Staal
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
6
Tkachuk
Staal
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
56.2% (989)
-1.3%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
66.0% (159)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
42.7% (253)
+57.3%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +57.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Staal
Home
50.8% (128)
55.4% (699)
Away
62.9% (132)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Tkachuk
Staal
P1
56.6%
55.7%
P2
58.9%
54.7%
P3
56.2%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |