Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 37 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Staal 55.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 45-33 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 82.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 94.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 75.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Tkachuk
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
33
(78 meetings)
45
33
Tkachuk
Staal
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
35
2
Tkachuk
Staal
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
25
Tkachuk
Staal
29 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Tkachuk
Staal
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
55.9% (14,654)
-7.0%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
62.7% (1,762)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
47.9% (2,907)
-2.9%
On power play, Staal has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,665).
Tkachuk shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Staal
Home
50.7% (1,435)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Tkachuk
Staal
P1
49.4%
55.2%
P2
51.3%
55.9%
P3
49.1%
54.8%
OT
55.3%
56.2%
Final 5 min
47.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |