Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 87.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 60.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Last 6: Tkachuk 2-4 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
4
Tkachuk
Stenlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
58.6% (797)
-7.6%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
62.5% (24)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
60.5% (233)
-10.5%
On power play, Stenlund has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Tkachuk shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Home
50.0% (140)
58.6% (548)
Away
52.2% (207)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Tkachuk
Stenlund
P1
54.3%
60.2%
P2
50.0%
59.1%
P3
49.5%
58.3%
OT
33.3%
58.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
51.3%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 16:54 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |