Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 56.9%). Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 54.2%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 81.5%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 65.9%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
55.9% (835)
-1.0%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
61.8% (228)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.0% (40)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
Home
50.8% (128)
55.1% (508)
Away
62.9% (132)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Tkachuk
Draisaitl
P1
56.6%
55.8%
P2
58.9%
55.7%
P3
56.2%
59.0%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |