Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Roy 48.4% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 95.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 62.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 56.1%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Tkachuk
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Tkachuk
Roy
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
8
1
Tkachuk
Roy
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
4
Tkachuk
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Tkachuk
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
48.7% (3,719)
+0.2%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
49.5% (283)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
45.5% (477)
-0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Roy
Home
50.7% (1,435)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Tkachuk
Roy
P1
49.4%
50.8%
P2
51.3%
46.3%
P3
49.1%
48.1%
OT
55.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OT | 00:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 15:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:52 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |