Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Cates 43.2% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 97.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.1%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 76.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Tkachuk
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tkachuk
Cates
Last 8: Tkachuk 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
1
Tkachuk
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
44.1% (2,786)
+4.8%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
42.9% (254)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
34.9% (373)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,665).
Tkachuk shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Cates
Home
50.7% (1,435)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Tkachuk
Cates
P1
49.4%
44.5%
P2
51.3%
43.7%
P3
49.1%
41.2%
OT
55.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
47.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Noah Cates |