Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Carrick 52.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 93.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 59.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 52.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Tkachuk
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Tkachuk
Carrick
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
6
0
Tkachuk
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
7
Tkachuk
Carrick
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
52.2% (2,544)
-3.3%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
61.3% (75)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
50.8% (435)
-5.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carrick
Home
50.7% (1,435)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carrick
P1
49.4%
51.8%
P2
51.3%
52.3%
P3
49.1%
52.6%
OT
55.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:04 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |