Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Kuraly 49.7% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 95.2%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 64.5%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Last 9: Tkachuk 6-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Kuraly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Tkachuk
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
49.2% (901)
-1.7%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
68.2% (22)
-17.9%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
49.8% (219)
-37.3%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Home
49.9% (389)
51.7% (603)
Away
46.8% (376)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Tkachuk
Kuraly
P1
44.4%
50.9%
P2
51.8%
49.5%
P3
47.8%
49.1%
OT
57.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
48.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |