Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 50.4%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Kuraly 50.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 88.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 58.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
7
(19 meetings)
12
7
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Last 10: Tkachuk 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
10
1
Tkachuk
Kuraly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
6
Tkachuk
Kuraly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
51.6% (5,161)
-2.7%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
56.4% (101)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
44.4% (1,091)
+0.6%
On power play, Kuraly has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,665).
Tkachuk shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Kuraly
Home
50.7% (1,435)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Tkachuk
Kuraly
P1
49.4%
51.2%
P2
51.3%
50.0%
P3
49.1%
50.2%
OT
55.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 02:08 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 07:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |