Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Point wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.0% vs McDavid 48.1% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 56.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.9%
Neutral zone
Point 51.8%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Point
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Point
McDavid
Last 5: Point 2-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Point
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Point
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (453)
47.7% (686)
-1.8%
Power Play
50.0% (108)
49.3% (75)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
48.9% (45)
-28.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +28.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Point is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Point shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Point
McDavid
Home
46.6% (264)
50.0% (412)
Away
46.4% (302)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Point
McDavid
P1
46.3%
48.0%
P2
45.5%
48.5%
P3
48.6%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
48.0%▬
48.0%
46.5%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brayden Point |