Scouting Report
Brayden Point holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 66.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 77.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.5%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Point
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Point
Cates
Last 10: Point 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
5
4
Point
Cates
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Point
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
5
6
Point
Cates
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,201)
44.1% (2,786)
+4.2%
Power Play
53.9% (1,046)
42.9% (254)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
34.9% (373)
+3.6%
On power play, Point has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,420).
Point shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Point
Cates
Home
49.0% (3,754)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Point
Cates
P1
46.8%
44.5%
P2
51.3%
43.7%
P3
48.0%
41.2%
OT
52.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
49.5%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |