Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Point wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 60.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Point
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Point
O'Reilly
Last 6: Point 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Point
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Point
3
0
Point
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Point
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (453)
55.7% (856)
-9.8%
Power Play
50.0% (108)
57.5% (233)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
50.0% (144)
-30.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Point is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Point shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Point
O'Reilly
Home
46.6% (264)
55.5% (616)
Away
46.4% (302)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Point
O'Reilly
P1
46.3%
58.1%
P2
45.5%
54.9%
P3
48.6%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
48.0%▬
48.0%
46.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:18 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |