Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 37 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 60-45 in 105 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 81.7%
Defensive zone
Point 78.3%
Neutral zone
Point 81.9%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Point
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
60
(105 meetings)
45
60
Point
O'Reilly
Last 10: Point 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
20
22
Point
O'Reilly
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
22
Point
O'Reilly
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
10
16
Point
O'Reilly
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,201)
56.2% (15,290)
-7.9%
Power Play
53.9% (1,046)
58.7% (3,457)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
51.4% (2,826)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,420).
Point shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Point
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (3,754)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Point
O'Reilly
P1
46.8%
55.6%
P2
51.3%
57.0%
P3
48.0%
55.0%
OT
52.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:18 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 08:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |