Scouting Report
Brayden Point holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Novak 43.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 61.1%
Defensive zone
Novak 64.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 67.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Point
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Point
Novak
Last 6: Point 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Point
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Point
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Point
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,201)
41.8% (1,568)
+6.5%
Power Play
53.9% (1,046)
51.5% (134)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
50.0% (2)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,420).
Point shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Point
Novak
Home
49.0% (3,754)
45.1% (831)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Point
Novak
P1
46.8%
43.7%
P2
51.3%
42.8%
P3
48.0%
41.1%
OT
52.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.5%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.8%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:41 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |