Scouting Report
Brayden Schenn holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Nelson 50.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Schenn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Schenn
Nelson
Last 6: Schenn 2-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Schenn
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Schenn
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
50.9% (928)
+0.6%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
59.8% (179)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
43.4% (205)
+23.3%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Schenn
Nelson
Home
53.9% (412)
52.9% (654)
Away
53.3% (375)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Schenn
Nelson
P1
49.6%
48.4%
P2
52.0%
54.3%
P3
58.1%
50.5%
OT
50.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |