Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.3%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 48.6% vs Nelson 48.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 34-27 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Schenn 58.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Neutral zone
Schenn 52.5%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Schenn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
34
(61 meetings)
27
34
Schenn
Nelson
Last 10: Schenn 4-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
13
9
Schenn
Nelson
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
15
Schenn
Nelson
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
10
Schenn
Nelson
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (8,842)
47.9% (9,744)
+0.1%
Power Play
53.5% (1,033)
54.7% (1,149)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (398)
43.8% (790)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Schenn is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,707).
Schenn shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Schenn
Nelson
Home
49.7% (5,075)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
47.4% (5,202)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Schenn
Nelson
P1
48.8%
48.7%
P2
48.6%
48.6%
P3
48.3%
47.7%
OT
50.9%
45.6%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
48.6%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Oct 17, 2024 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |