Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Tavares 56.8% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.3%
Defensive zone
Schenn 50.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 61.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Schenn
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Schenn
Tavares
Last 5: Schenn 3-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Schenn
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
0
Schenn
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
57.7% (975)
-6.2%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
56.0% (250)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
52.2% (23)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Schenn
Tavares
Home
53.9% (412)
57.4% (636)
Away
53.3% (375)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Schenn
Tavares
P1
49.6%
57.5%
P2
52.0%
56.9%
P3
58.1%
57.5%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:15 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |