Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 48.6% vs Tavares 54.4% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 44-31 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
Schenn 86.0%
Defensive zone
Schenn 73.4%
Neutral zone
Schenn 78.1%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Schenn
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
44
(75 meetings)
31
44
Schenn
Tavares
Last 10: Schenn 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
15
14
Schenn
Tavares
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
22
Schenn
Tavares
29 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
9
8
Schenn
Tavares
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (8,842)
54.0% (16,169)
-6.0%
Power Play
53.5% (1,033)
56.4% (4,298)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (398)
50.5% (624)
-2.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Schenn is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,707).
Schenn shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Schenn
Tavares
Home
49.7% (5,075)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
47.4% (5,202)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Schenn
Tavares
P1
48.8%
55.0%
P2
48.6%
54.1%
P3
48.3%
54.0%
OT
50.9%
55.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
48.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:15 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 14:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |