Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Frost 56.4% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 65.4%
Defensive zone
Schenn 62.7%
Neutral zone
Schenn 52.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Schenn
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Schenn
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Schenn
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
56.0% (755)
-4.5%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
60.1% (173)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
88.9% (9)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Schenn
Frost
Home
53.9% (412)
57.3% (497)
Away
53.3% (375)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Schenn
Frost
P1
49.6%
60.2%
P2
52.0%
56.0%
P3
58.1%
54.8%
OT
50.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:58 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |