Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.6% vs 54.3%). Look for Schenn on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs Paul 53.6% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Schenn leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 51.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.7%
Neutral zone
Schenn 53.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Schenn
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Schenn
Paul
Last 10: Schenn 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
Schenn
Paul
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
3
2
Schenn
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
5
1
Schenn
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
53.7% (354)
-2.2%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
59.0% (61)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
52.9% (34)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Schenn
Paul
Home
53.9% (412)
55.1% (216)
Away
53.3% (375)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Schenn
Paul
P1
49.6%
54.9%
P2
52.0%
54.5%
P3
58.1%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 04:58 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:55 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 08:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:32 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |