Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 48.6% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 21-16 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Schenn 73.9%
Defensive zone
Schenn 55.5%
Neutral zone
Schenn 62.8%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Schenn
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
21
(37 meetings)
16
21
Schenn
Paul
Last 10: Schenn 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
7
Schenn
Paul
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
6
Schenn
Paul
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
9
8
Schenn
Paul
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (8,842)
52.6% (3,823)
-4.6%
Power Play
53.5% (1,033)
56.2% (484)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (398)
46.9% (576)
+1.3%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Schenn is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,707).
Schenn shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Schenn
Paul
Home
49.7% (5,075)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
47.4% (5,202)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Schenn
Paul
P1
48.8%
53.8%
P2
48.6%
51.0%
P3
48.3%
52.2%
OT
50.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
48.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 04:58 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:55 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 08:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:32 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:42 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:36 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |