Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Howden wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs McDavid 48.1% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.3%
Defensive zone
Howden 61.0%
Neutral zone
Howden 53.4%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Howden
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Howden
McDavid
Last 5: Howden 3-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Howden
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
1
Howden
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
47.7% (686)
+2.1%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
49.3% (75)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
48.9% (45)
-1.8%
On power play, Howden has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Howden is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Howden shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Howden
McDavid
Home
46.5% (217)
50.0% (412)
Away
52.7% (237)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Howden
McDavid
P1
51.4%
48.0%
P2
51.6%
48.5%
P3
48.5%
47.1%
OT
26.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | OT | 03:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |