Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.9% vs McDavid 47.8% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.2%
Defensive zone
Howden 56.2%
Neutral zone
Howden 51.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Howden
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Howden
McDavid
Last 10: Howden 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
4
Howden
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
4
2
Howden
McDavid
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
1
Howden
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (2,926)
47.7% (8,394)
+1.8%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
52.1% (374)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (320)
43.8% (281)
-0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Howden is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,170).
Howden shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Howden
McDavid
Home
48.2% (1,630)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
49.6% (1,727)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Howden
McDavid
P1
49.5%
46.5%
P2
47.9%
48.7%
P3
49.8%
48.3%
OT
35.5%
42.2%
Final 5 min
48.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
48.9%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | OT | 03:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |