Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs Frost 56.4% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 78.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 85.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 85.5%
14.5%
85.5%
Howden
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Howden
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
0
Howden
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
56.0% (755)
-6.2%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
60.1% (173)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
88.9% (9)
-41.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +41.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Howden is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Howden shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Howden
Frost
Home
46.5% (217)
57.3% (497)
Away
52.7% (237)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Howden
Frost
P1
51.4%
60.2%
P2
51.6%
56.0%
P3
48.5%
54.8%
OT
26.7%
63.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |