Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Boeser wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boeser 41.8% vs Tavares 54.4% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boeser 61.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.0%
Neutral zone
Boeser 50.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Boeser
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Boeser
Tavares
Last 9: Boeser 4-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boeser
2
0
Boeser
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Boeser
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Boeser
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boeser
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (448)
54.0% (16,169)
-14.3%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
56.4% (4,298)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.5% (624)
+9.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Boeser is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Boeser shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Home / Away
Boeser
Tavares
Home
41.2% (245)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
39.0% (251)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Boeser
Tavares
P1
37.2%
55.0%
P2
42.4%
54.1%
P3
40.5%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
42.1%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boeser
46.0%▲
40.5%
40.1%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 13:20 | Offensive | Brock Boeser |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 11:22 | Neutral | Brock Boeser |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2019 | OT | 02:32 | Defensive | Brock Boeser |