Scouting Report
Brayden Schenn holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.1% vs Nelson 50.7% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Schenn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Schenn
Nelson
Last 6: Schenn 2-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Schenn
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Schenn
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
50.8% (917)
+0.5%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
59.1% (176)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
43.1% (204)
+23.6%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Schenn is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Schenn shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Home / Away
Schenn
Nelson
Home
53.6% (399)
52.6% (639)
Away
53.3% (375)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Schenn
Nelson
P1
48.9%
48.3%
P2
52.1%
54.0%
P3
58.2%
50.4%
OT
50.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.0%
53.5%
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |