Brock Nelson vs Casey Mittelstadt
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Mittelstadt 50.5% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 62.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
0
2
Nelson
Mittelstadt
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.6% (141)
+1.3%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
54.8% (31)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
100.0% (1)
-56.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Mittelstadt is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Home
52.9% (654)
58.7% (92)
Away
48.9% (658)
42.0% (81)
By Period
Nelson
Mittelstadt
P1
48.4%
47.7%
P2
54.3%
48.2%
P3
50.5%
56.7%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |