Brock Nelson vs Casey Mittelstadt
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Mittelstadt 45.6% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 81.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
14
(34 meetings)
20
14
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Mittelstadt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Mittelstadt
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
4
6
Nelson
Mittelstadt
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
4
Nelson
Mittelstadt
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
45.0% (3,924)
+2.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
49.7% (666)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
37.5% (96)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Home
50.1% (5,878)
46.7% (2,317)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
44.3% (2,369)
By Period
Nelson
Mittelstadt
P1
48.7%
46.7%
P2
48.6%
46.1%
P3
47.7%
44.0%
OT
45.6%
36.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 07:24 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 01:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |