Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Dvorak 53.3% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 67.1%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 67.1%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 66.8%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Dvorak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
0
2
Nelson
Dvorak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dvorak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
54.2% (804)
-3.4%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
54.2% (131)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
46.4% (84)
-3.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
52.6% (639)
53.9% (497)
Away
48.9% (658)
53.3% (522)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
48.3%
54.6%
P2
54.0%
53.2%
P3
50.4%
54.3%
OT
41.2%
34.8%
Final 5 min
51.7%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |