Brock Nelson vs Christian Dvorak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Dvorak 53.1% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 35-33 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.6%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 52.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
35
(68 meetings)
33
35
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
11
Nelson
Dvorak
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
9
10
Nelson
Dvorak
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
10
14
Nelson
Dvorak
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
53.1% (6,785)
-5.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
55.7% (1,012)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
50.8% (889)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,588).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
50.1% (5,878)
54.7% (4,151)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
51.7% (4,535)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
48.7%
54.5%
P2
48.6%
51.9%
P3
47.7%
53.1%
OT
45.6%
56.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 00:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |