Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Dvorak 51.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 65.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Nelson
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Dvorak
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dvorak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dvorak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
4
Nelson
Dvorak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
52.2% (686)
-5.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
49.0% (104)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
53.5% (127)
-28.5%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Dvorak is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dvorak
Home
48.9% (521)
54.1% (423)
Away
45.5% (516)
50.2% (494)
By Period
Nelson
Dvorak
P1
45.9%
51.4%
P2
48.0%
52.0%
P3
48.0%
52.4%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
47.3%
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 01:31 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 01:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |