Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Bedard 46.5% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Nelson
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nelson
Bedard
Last 9: Nelson 5-4 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Bedard
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
0
1
Nelson
Bedard
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Bedard
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
44.2% (505)
+6.7%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
66.7% (36)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
53.8% (13)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bedard
Home
52.9% (654)
50.7% (223)
Away
48.9% (658)
42.6% (331)
By Period
Nelson
Bedard
P1
48.4%
40.2%
P2
54.3%
49.2%
P3
50.5%
47.2%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 10:39 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:21 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |