Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Bedard 40.9% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 92.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 91.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Nelson
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Nelson
Bedard
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Bedard
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Bedard
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Bedard
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
39.7% (1,413)
+8.1%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
51.5% (68)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
45.5% (22)
-2.0%
On even strength, Nelson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Bedard is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bedard
Home
49.8% (5,696)
42.9% (707)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
38.1% (796)
By Period
Nelson
Bedard
P1
48.6%
38.3%
P2
48.4%
39.8%
P3
47.4%
43.1%
OT
46.4%
38.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:21 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |